Nigeria’s oil output reached 1.69 million barrels per day (mbd) in November, marking its highest level in 44 months. This increase is attributed to improved production efforts, with the addition of condensate contributing to the rise from 1.53 mbpd in October.
Data from the National Liquid Hydrocarbon Production reports by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) showed the country’s oil output hit 1.69 million bpd in November 2024.
The country continues to hold its position as Africa’s largest oil producer despite challenges such as oil theft and infrastructural issues impacting overall production capabilities. The recent figures reflect ongoing efforts to stabilise and enhance Nigeria’s oil sector amidst fluctuating global prices.
Nigeria’s oil production rebounded to its highest level since April 2021, reaching 1.69 million barrels per day (bpd), raising the prospects for increased petrodollar inflows, which could bolster the Nigerian economy amid ongoing fiscal reforms.
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Nigeria’s 2024 budget is based on an oil revenue projection of ₦7.94 trillion, assuming the country consistently achieves 1.78 million bpd and an oil price of $78 per barrel.
However, oil theft and pipeline vandalism have long plagued Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas industry, driving major producers out of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) largest African member state and often resulting in force majeure at key crude oil export terminals.
On average, crude oil production for the month was 1.48 million bpd, while blended and unblended condensate accounted for 46,483 bpd and 158,345 bpd, respectively.
Crude oil is a natural liquid extracted from the ground. Blended condensate is created by mixing natural gas liquids, while unblended condensate remains pure, without any mixing or processing after separation from raw natural gas.
Further findings showed Nigeria’s oil production rose to 1.64 million bpd in January 2024 but couldn’t maintain the momentum, with output falling to 1.54 million bpd in February.
The downward trajectory continued in March, when production dropped to 1.44 million bpd. However, it rose by 0.65 per cent to 1.47 million bpd in April. Production increased over the next four months until September and October, when output declined to 1.54 million bpd and 1.53 million bpd, respectively.
Higher production, coupled with steady oil prices, is projected to improve foreign exchange reserves, reduce budget deficits, and ease pressure on the naira. Nigeria’s 2024 budget is based on an oil revenue projection of ₦7.94 trillion, assuming the country consistently achieves 1.78 million bpd and an oil price of $78 per barrel.
The recent jump in production to 1.7 million bpd (including condensate) in November 2024 has resulted from Nigerian authorities ramping up security measures at oilfields to crack down on pipeline theft and sabotage.
Nigeria has consistently struggled to produce up to its maximum capacity in recent years. In January, after months of underproduction, its OPEC quota was lowered by approximately 200,000 bpd, symbolising declining African influence within the bloc.
In the past year, the country has seen an attempted exodus of international oil companies (IOCs), including ExxonMobil and Shell, which have sought to sell assets to local firms.
President Bola Tinubu, who campaigned on a promise to reform the country’s oil sector, declared a state of emergency in the industry in June, directing security agencies to go after thieves and vandals in the Niger Delta.
“These measures have directly improved the uptime of the Trans Niger Pipeline in the eastern Niger Delta, and today, all operating companies along the TNP can produce into this major trunkline,” Olu Verheijen, special adviser on energy to President Bola Tinubu, said on 14 November at an industry event.
She added that the oil sector reforms included an improved fiscal framework for producers, including in deepwater operations, and were expected to attract new investments that would unlock around 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent in oil and gas resources.
Nigeria’s budget for next year is based on 1.7 million bpd of oil production and oil prices at $75 per barrel.
Last month, Nigeria announced it had reached an output of 1.8 million bpd and claimed it could even achieve 2 million bpd by the end of the year.
Earlier, the Group Chief Executive Officer (GCEO) of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, Mele Kyari, revealed that the state-owned oil company and its partners had ramped up crude oil and gas production to 1.8 million bpd in November.
“The team has done a great job in driving this project of not just production recovery but also escalating production to expected levels that are in the short and long term acceptable to our shareholders, based on the mandates that we have from the President, the Honourable Minister, and the Board,” Kyari said.