The rebels of the Tutsi M23 backed by the Rwanda Defence Force, RDF on January 27, 2025 rolled into Goma, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, DRC eliminating whosoever they found in their path. These included the peacekeepers of United Nations Organisation Stabilisation Mission in the DRC, MONUSCO and, the Southern African Development Community Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo, SAMIDRC.
One of the first UN Peacekeepers killed was Rodlfo Alverez of the Uruguayan IV Battalion. Peacekeepers of the SAMIDRC attacked by the M23-Rwandan forces came from countries like Malawi and Tanzania. But the country that has sustained the highest loss is South Africa with fourteen of its soldiers killed.
Understandably, the countries of these victims are unhappy. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said his country is working to ensure that the peacekeepers not only remain on ground but are also well equipped to fulfil their mandate.
He clarified that: “South Africa’s military presence in the eastern DRC is not a declaration of war against any country or state.” Rather, he said: “The presence of the SAMIDRC forces demonstrates a commitment of SADC member states to supporting the DRC in its efforts to achieve lasting peace and stability and ultimately, create an enabling environment for sustainable development and prosperity.” He backed the United Nations Security Council, UNSC: “which calls for an immediate end to hostilities, the reversal of territorial expansion by the M23, the exit of external forces from the DRC and the resumption of peace talks under the Nairobi Process.”
Ramaphosa’s words riled Rwandan President Paul Kagame who does not want peace-keepers in neigbouring DRC. In fact, he says the SAMIDRC is not a peace keeping body, but rather: “It was authorised by SADC as a belligerent force engaging in offensive combat operations to help the DRC government fight against its own people, working alongside genocidal armed groups like FDLR which target Rwanda, while also threatening to take the war to Rwanda itself.” Kagame, abandoning any pretences at diplomacy, sneered that: “Cyril Ramaphosa is behaving as if he were some peacemaker.”
After the two leaders had a phone call, Kagame issued a Statement: “What has been said about [the conversations I had with Ramaphosa this week] in the media by South African officials and President Ramaphosa himself contains a lot of distortion, deliberate attacks, and even lies.” Responding to the notion that the South African President had cautioned him, Kagame joked : “President Ramaphosa has never given a ‘warning’ of any kind, unless it was delivered in his local language which I do not understand.”
After exonerating the M23 rebels from the death of the peacekeepers, Kagame issued a direct threat to South Africa: “If South Africa wants to contribute to peaceful solutions, that is well and good, but South Africa is in no position to take on the role of a peacemaker or mediator. And if South Africa prefers confrontation, Rwanda will deal with the matter in that context any day.”
Kagame wants the war in the DRC to continue and is obviously trying to bait South Africa. There are various reasons I can decipher for this. First, Rwanda is illegally mining and selling the minerals of the DRC. This is possible and sustainable only if conflicts persist and are sustained in the latter. I call this the DRC Syndrome. This is a disease afflicting many countries who cannot keep their itchy fingers off the DRC’s numerous and seemingly inexhaustible mineral resources.
This leads to the second reason why Kagame is so belligerent. He is close to the West and many there, especially European countries which are building a so-called corridor for DRC minerals, want control of the minerals. Kagame is positioning himself as a sort of enforcer who can guarantee the interests of the West especially in the face of challenges from China and other non-Western countries.
Another possible reason is linked to Kagame being a ‘yes-man’ of the West. He has already offered his country as a large detention centre to hold illegal immigrants expelled from Europe. For this service, Britain alone paid Kigali about $300 million in 2023. In contrast, South Africa is becoming a torn in the flesh of the West, especially its championing a New World order in Africa by popularising the BRICS. It has also had the courage to drag Israel before the International Court of Justice, ICJ for genocide in the Palestine.
Again, South Africa is trying to find ways to transfer some of the lands the Whites are still holding, to the populace. Over this, President Donald Trump has already threatened rainbow country.
For these, South Africa has become a target for the West and its ally, Israel – some of whose weapons the M23 rebels reportedly used in the offensive against Goma. Kagame is holding himself out as someone who can help engage South Africa militarily and destabilize it from outside, while the neo-Apartheid forces, attack from within.
Also, Kagame and the Tutsis are ruling Rwanda and may hope that by arming and supporting the M23 Tutsi rebels in the DRC, they can build an international alliance of Tutsis and, also use the rebels to build a buffer zone with the DRC that has some rebel Hutu militia from Rwanda.
The Tutsi push in Eastern DRC has stopped. But I do not think it is for so called humanitarian aid to flow. Rather, the rebels and the Rwandese must ask themselves, after taking large parts of eastern DRC, can they proceed, if yes, to where? Being essentially an ethnic militia, it is unlikely other ethnic nationalities would welcome them on their territories. So, will they try to break away from the rest of the DRC and create a new republic? Or, will eastern DRC be merged with Rwanda to create a bigger Tustsi nationality in Rwanda?
The possibility of the situation degenerating into a regional conflict is very high. It reminds me of the 1998-2003 regional war in DRC involving nine countries; DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, Angola, Sudan, Chad, Zimbabwe, Burundi and Namibia. Over three million lives were lost in that conflict with another two million dying from causes related to the conflicts.
Perhaps an issue Rwanda seems to over- look is that just as it is training, arming and funding the M23 rebels in the DRC, African countries such as South Africa and Zimbabwe are also capable of doing the same with Hutu rebels.
In Nigeria, beautiful drums are made of animal skin. But the people say when a drum is beaten too loud, it will go burst. Kagame, from being a young Ugandan soldier, to President of Rwanda for twenty five years now, should be careful otherwise, he would go burst with his Tutsi allies.