With possible political realignments and potential coalitions ahead of the 2027 elections, the leading regional bodies of the North and the South West have restated their positions on the issue of rotational presidency and power shift.
The northern apex socio-cultural organisation, Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), has faulted the notion that the region was the ultimate kingmaker which could give victory to any presidential candidate of its choosing.
ACF further traced former President Goodluck Jonathan’s defeat in the 2015 presidential poll to his policies, rather than a gang-up by the North as widely speculated in certain quarters
On its part, the pan-Yoruba socio-cultural and socio-political organisation, Afenifere, has disclosed that there was an understanding for rotation of presidency between the North and the South.
It, however, noted that the spate of defections from the opposition does not indicate that the incumbent, President Bola Tinubu, will lose the presidency in 2027.
The All Progressives Congress (APC) national chairman, Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, had on Tuesday reignited the perennial debate about power shift and rotational presidency when he told the North to forget about contesting the 2027 presidential election.
Ganduje, while receiving a delegation of President Bola Tinubu Media Centre and Tinubu Northern Youth Forum at the party’s national secretariat in Abuja, said: “Our president has come from the South and is going, Insha Allah, for a second term come 2027. And after that, it will be the turn of the northern part of this country.”
Interestingly, a former Kaduna State Governor Mallam Nasir El-Rufai had shared a write-up by an APC member, who warned that President Tinubu may be given the ‘Goodluck Jonathan treatment’ ahead of the next presidential election.
The former Kaduna State governor, who has been one of the leading figures in the gathering of politicians opposed to the Tinubu administration, was a key advocate for power shift to the South in the 2023 election which saw President Bola Tinubu, from the South West emerge president. Tinubu took over from Muhammadu Buhari, a Northerner who was in office for eight years.
Ganduje’s call to the North was preceded by a similar declaration, last year, by secretary to the government of the federation, Senator George Akume, who said the North should wait till 2031 to contest for the top seat which it vacated in 2023.
Akume was opposed by former vice president Atiku Abubakar, who stated that President Tinubu’s performance showed he did not deserve another term, saying, “God forbid.”
The power rotation agreement between the North and the South is one of the most contentious political debates, and it played a key role in the defeat of the former ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
But speaking exclusively with LEADERSHIP Friday in Kaduna, ACF spokesman, Prof. T.A Muhammad Baba, said El-Rufai and Ganduje were expressing their personal opinions as politicians.
He, however, disproved the notion that the North would decide the outcome of the presidential election, describing it as an exaggerated position.
He nonetheless noted that the North had learnt its lessons with the last three presidential elections.
ACF said, ”Former Governors Nasir El-Rufai and Abdullahi Ganduje, as politicians, were expressing their opinions. Let them continue talking, but when the time comes, the voters will make decisions based on the government’s policies.
“To me, it is not enough to say the North caused former President Jonathan’s defeat; his policies caused his defeat and not the North.
“I think to keep saying the North will decide presidential elections is an exaggerated position because the North alone cannot decide or give any presidential candidate victory. For you to win presidential elections, you must have 3As, which are: available, agreeable and accessible.”
According to him, in the 2027 election, “when the time comes, Nigerians will decide, not only the north. The North has learnt its lesson in 2015, 2019, 2023.”
There Is Understanding For Rotation Of Presidency Between North, South – Afenifere
The pan-Yoruba socio-cultural and socio-political organisation Afenifere has restated that there was an understanding for rotating the presidency between the North and the South.
When contacted, Afenifere spokesman, Comrade Jare Ajayi, stated that El Rufai and Ganduje, as politicians of stature, were expressing divergent views that align with their present political divide.
He said “Although the two of them are known as members of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress (APC), it is common knowledge that former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El Rufai, has, of late, been talking more as a member of the opposition party.
“His view that the North may not vote for President Bola Tinubu in 2027 if he (Tinubu) decides to run for a second term should be viewed from that lens – that of a person who is talking from an opposition perspective.
“Alhaji Ganduje, on the other hand, is not just a member of the ruling party; he is the national chairman. On the issue at hand, the APC chairman appears to be on point.”
The Afenifere chieftain, however, asserted that “there seems to be a gentleman’s understanding between politicians in the North and those in the South for the Presidency to rotate between the two zones. It is expected that a southerner occupying the position presently in the person of Asiwaju Ahmed Bola Tinubu will spend two terms like former Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo and Mohammadu Buhari.”
As for El-Rufai’s claim that Tinubu’s influence is waning in the North, Ajayi said it is the election that will really determine that.
“But if we go by the rate at which politicians in the opposition parties are defecting into the APC, it may be a bit difficult to agree with the former Kaduna State governor on this score.
“Also, the situation that prevented former President Goodluck Jonathan from getting a second term in 2015 may not necessarily be the same in 2027,” the Afenifere spokesman said.